Korea Was The Canary

On Tuesday, June 23, South Korea's KOSPI fell 9.99 percent in a single session, tripping circuit breakers, wiping out roughly $2.5 billion in foreign capital in hours, and qualifying as the fifth-largest single-day decline in the index's history. Samsung and SK Hynix each lost more than twelve percent. The Nasdaq followed down 2.21 percent the next session. Oracle, in the same news cycle, disclosed it had cut twenty-one thousand jobs in a year — almost thirteen percent of its workforce — and named AI as the reason. Forty-eight hours, three disclosures. None of this is a tech story. It is the beginning of a macro story we have not yet learned to read.

The capex has become the commodity

For two decades we taught ourselves that crude was the single variable that synchronised global cycles. A spike in oil touched everything: inflation in importers, fiscal space in exporters, central bank reaction functions everywhere. That intuition is still half right. But a new variable has joined it, and the last week suggests it is, in the short run, more potent.

Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Oracle are between them committing capex plans this year that could touch seven hundred billion dollars to build AI data centres. Oracle alone reported negative free cash flow of $23.7 billion last fiscal year while raising capex 162 percent to $55.7 billion. Those numbers are not technology numbers anymore. They are macroeconomic numbers — comparable in scale to the annual oil import bills of mid-sized economies — and they are decided in a handful of US boardrooms.

This is the kind of single-factor dependence Professor Richard Robb's International Capital Markets course at Columbia kept circling: when cross-border flows are tethered to a small set of decisions on a small set of US balance sheets, the receiving economies inherit volatility they did not choose and cannot hedge. Korea just lived through one rehearsal.

Why Korea fell first

Korea was not a random victim. The KOSPI was up roughly 95 percent year-to-date going into Tuesday. Samsung and SK Hynix together account for about half the index by market capitalisation. The Bank of Korea has openly said AI-related chip exports will add 0.7 percentage points to 2026 growth, more than offsetting the drag from costlier oil. Taiwan is on track for 9.6 percent GDP growth this year — its highest in sixteen — on the same trade.

When the global market began doubting whether US hyperscaler capex was sustainable, every one of those exposures got marked at once. Three triggers converged on the same morning: MSCI again excluded Korea from its developed-markets watchlist, regulators raised flags about leveraged single-stock ETFs tied to Samsung and SK Hynix, and a hawkish Federal Reserve dot-plot from June 17 was already in the bloodstream. The market did not need a new fact. It needed a coordination point.

India's awkward middle position

India's place in this story is uncomfortable. Unlike Korea or Taiwan, India is not a meaningful seller into the AI hardware stack. Unlike China, it is not building frontier models at scale. The result is the worst of both worlds: when AI capex booms, India captures little of the upside; when it wobbles, the contagion still arrives — through portfolio outflows, currency pressure and the generic risk-off impulse against emerging markets.

The numbers this month are blunt. Foreign portfolio investors pulled roughly sixty-four thousand crore rupees out of Indian equities in the first half of June alone, the heaviest exit since March, with elevated oil and "concerns over AI's impact on tech revenues" cited as the principal reasons. Two macro factors, neither of which India controls, set the direction of an enormous slice of market cap. That is not market accident; that is structural exposure.

What policymakers should actually do

One. AI capex belongs on the macroprudential dashboard. The Reserve Bank's Financial Stability Report already tracks crude, dollar moves, FII positioning and banking-sector stress. It should now also track the announced capex plans of the five US hyperscalers, because in any given quarter those plans are a bigger swing factor for emerging Asia than the OPEC+ communique. Treating this as a tech-sector story is a category error.

Two. The export-services tax base — IT, ITES, global capability centres — is more cyclically exposed to AI capex than its standard sector classification implies. Revenue projections and advance-tax assumptions should stress-test against a fifteen to twenty percent compression in this base, not as a tail risk but as a plausible scenario for the coming eighteen months. A tax administration cannot afford to be the last institution to learn that a sector's cycle has changed.

Three. The Indian debate around "missing the AI boat" oscillates uselessly between buying chips and drafting strategies. The better path runs through demand the country actually controls — large-scale public-sector AI deployment in tax, courts, health, urban services — so that compute spend, even if imported, gets monetised at home through productivity. A country that is a net buyer of AI inputs must, at minimum, be the most efficient internal consumer of them.

The bigger lesson

The KOSPI's nine-point-ninety-nine percent is not really a market story. It is a structural disclosure. Forty years ago a single oil price ran the world's inflation and growth narrative. We are not there yet with AI capex. But we are closer than is comfortable, and the trajectory is one-way. The job of policymakers in countries that neither make the chips nor own the models is to stop treating each AI-driven wobble as a curiosity and start treating it as a recurring macro shock with the same seriousness we reserve for crude.

Korea was the canary. The mine is the rest of us.

#AIcapex #KOSPI #EmergingMarkets #IndiaEconomy #GlobalMarkets #Semiconductors #MacroPolicy #ForeignFlows

India's First Global AI Summit

The first-ever global AI summit hosted in the Global South just kicked off in Delhi. And I was there on the expo floor yesterday.

Bharat Mandapam was buzzing — 300+ exhibitors from over 110 countries, 20+ Heads of State converging later this week, and Sundar Pichai landing in Delhi for a keynote. The India AI Impact Summit 2026 is massive by any measure.

Which of these AI tools can actually survive contact with Indian government reality?

Not the pitch deck reality. The ground reality. The 10,000-user, legacy-system, compliance-heavy, can't-afford-downtime reality.

With that lens, I walked the expo floor for hours. And seven solutions stood out — not because they had the flashiest booths, but because they addressed problems I deal with every single day.

Here's what I found.

1. Deloitte PRAGYA — When Consulting Meets AI at Scale

Deloitte's PRAGYA platform wasn't just another enterprise AI dashboard. What caught my attention was how it bridges the gap between strategic advisory and operational execution.

In government, we've seen no shortage of consulting reports that gather dust on shelves. What we need are tools that take a recommendation and help you implement it — across hundreds of offices, with varying levels of digital maturity, in real time.

PRAGYA seems to be built for exactly that kind of complexity. For large-scale government transformation programs — the kind where you're implementing a new Act across an entire department — this is the type of AI-assisted project intelligence that could change how we manage reform.

2. LKS In-House Litigation Management — This One Hit Home

If you've ever managed litigation portfolios in government, you know the pain. Thousands of cases. Multiple courts. Overlapping deadlines. Paper trails that would fill a warehouse.

I've spent years in ITAT litigation and transfer pricing disputes both in Mumbai and Amritsar, including cases worth hundreds of crores. The single biggest bottleneck isn't legal strategy — it's tracking, coordination, and institutional memory.

LKS has built an AI-powered litigation management system designed for in-house legal teams (as of now). Automated case tracking, deadline management, outcome analysis, and pattern recognition across your case portfolio.

For the Income Tax Department — which handles lakhs of cases across the country at any given time — a system like this isn't a luxury. It's an operational necessity. The question isn't whether we need it. It's how fast we can adapt it to our scale.

3. Smoothtalk AI — Virtual Calling That Could Transform Citizen Services

Picture this: a taxpayer in a Tier 3 city has a query about their assessment. Today, they call a helpline, wait, get transferred, explain their problem three times, and maybe — maybe — get a resolution.

Smoothtalk AI is building virtual calling agents that can handle these interactions with natural, human-like conversation. Not the robotic IVR menus we've all grown to hate. Actual contextual dialogue.

For any government department that handles millions of citizen queries — and the Income Tax Department certainly does — this technology could fundamentally reshape the service delivery experience. Imagine every taxpayer getting an intelligent, patient, context-aware agent on the other end of the line, available 24/7, in multiple languages.

We're not there yet. But the demo I saw suggests we're closer than most people think.

4. Government AI — A UK Perspective on Sovereign Deployment

This one was fascinating for a different reason. Government AI is a UK-based platform built specifically for public sector use cases.

What made me stop and engage wasn't just the product. It was the philosophy. They've clearly thought through the unique constraints of government — compliance requirements, audit trails, data sensitivity, and the fact that "move fast and break things" is not an acceptable operating principle when you're dealing with citizens' data and rights.

Seeing how another country approaches sovereign AI deployment gives useful comparative perspective. At CBDT, as we think about integrating AI into tax administration, understanding global best practices — not just Silicon Valley practices — is essential. The UK's approach to government-specific AI platforms is worth studying closely. They infact have their own courses on iGOT platform.

5. ACTUALITY — On-Premise Deployment for Data That Can't Leave the Building

This is the unsexy but critical conversation that most AI summits skip.

Every AI vendor will tell you their cloud solution is secure. And maybe it is — for a private company. But when you're dealing with taxpayer data, national security information, or sensitive government records, "trust our cloud" is not sufficient.

ACTUALITY offers on-premise AI deployment. Your data stays on your servers. Your models run on your infrastructure. Full control, full compliance.

For Indian government agencies bound by data localization requirements and handling some of the most sensitive personal data in the country, on-premise deployment isn't optional. It's the baseline requirement for any serious AI adoption. ACTUALITY understands this, and that alone puts them ahead of a lot of flashier competitors who haven't thought through the government procurement and compliance lens.

6. Sovereign AI — Local LLMs for Government Solutions

If ACTUALITY addresses where the data lives, Sovereign AI addresses something equally important: where the intelligence comes from.

Large Language Models trained on Western internet data don't inherently understand Indian tax law, Hindi administrative procedures, or the nuances of how a CBDT circular differs from a notification. They can approximate. They can't natively operate in our context.

Sovereign AI is building local LLMs designed for government use — models trained on local data, in local languages, for local administrative contexts. Data stays within borders. Models understand the operating environment they're deployed in.

This is the future of public sector AI, and India — with its scale, linguistic diversity, and digital infrastructure ambitions — should be leading this charge. The IndiaAI Mission's focus on building indigenous AI capacity aligns perfectly with what Sovereign AI is demonstrating.

I can tell you: the gap between a generic LLM and one that understands Section 148A of the Income Tax Act 1961 is not a nice-to-have. It's the difference between a tool that helps and one that creates more problems than it solves.

7. FUSKI.ai — Training Your Workforce Before You Deploy Your AI

Here's a truth that doesn't get enough airtime at AI summits: the biggest bottleneck to AI adoption in government isn't technology. It's people.

You can have the most sophisticated AI system in the world, but if the 50,000 officers who are supposed to use it don't understand it, don't trust it, and haven't been trained on it — you've just bought a very expensive piece of software that nobody opens.

FUSKI.ai builds AI-powered training modules for workforce upskilling. Custom learning paths. Adaptive difficulty. Progress tracking. The kind of structured capability building that large organizations need before they can meaningfully adopt AI tools.

When I think about our challenge at CBDT — implementing a new Act across 700+ offices with staff at wildly different levels of digital comfort — this is exactly the gap that needs filling. You can't just send a circular saying "use AI now." You need a systematic, scalable training infrastructure.

FUSKI.ai could be that infrastructure.

The Bigger Picture

Walking the expo floor, what struck me most wasn't any individual product. It was the shift in the overall conversation.

Three years ago, the question at these events was: "Should government use AI?"

Two years ago, it became: "Can government use AI responsibly?"

Yesterday at Bharat Mandapam, the question had evolved to: "How fast can we deploy AI, and what's stopping us?"

That's a seismic shift. And it tells you something about where India — and the Global South more broadly — stands in the AI landscape. We're not spectators in this revolution. We're not waiting for Silicon Valley to build solutions and then adapting them for our context.

We're building. We're deploying. We're setting the terms.

The India AI Impact Summit 2026 — anchored in the three Sutras of People, Planet, and Progress — isn't just a diplomatic gathering. It's a statement of intent. India is positioning itself as a global convenor for responsible, inclusive AI. And based on what I saw on the expo floor, the ecosystem is rising to match that ambition.

The summit continues through February 20th (in fact extended to 21st Feb for general public), with PM Modi's inaugural address tomorrow setting the tone for the main event. I'll be watching closely.

But if the expo is any indication, the future of AI in governance isn't coming.

It's already here. Walking the floor at Bharat Mandapam.

2026: Standing at the Threshold of Transformation

New Year, New Possibilities, New Purpose

There's something uniquely humbling about standing at the edge of a new year. It's that rare moment when you're allowed—almost expected—to pause, look back at the road traveled, and then turn your gaze forward to the horizon ahead. As 2025 draws to a close and 2026 beckons, I find myself doing exactly that.

And what a year 2025 has been.

Working at the Heart of Policy

If someone had told me a few years ago that I'd be working at DOMS—the policy think tank of the Central Board of Direct Taxes—collaborating closely with Board Members and the Chairman himself, I would have been both thrilled and terrified. The reality? It's been even more enriching than I imagined.

At Directorate of Income Tax (Organization and Management Services) (DOMS), CBDT, we don't just talk about policy; we live it, breathe it, and shape it. This year, I had the privilege of being part of several transformative initiatives that will impact millions of taxpayers and reshape how our tax administration functions.

We worked extensively on revising the Taxpayers' Charter—not as a cosmetic exercise, but as a genuine commitment to making tax administration more transparent, accountable, and citizen-centric. Every word mattered. Every commitment needed to be backed by implementable processes. It was policy work at its core, and it reminded me why I chose public service in the first place.

Then came Special Campaign 5.0, spearheaded by the Department of Administrative Reforms and Public Grievances (DARPG). As the nodal authority for CBDT, we were right in the thick of it—streamlining processes, addressing pending matters, improving responsiveness. It's the kind of work that doesn't always make headlines but fundamentally changes how government functions.

And now? We're working on Guidance Notes for the new Income Tax Act, 2025. This is history in the making. A completely reimagined tax legislation going live on April 1, 2026. The responsibility is immense, but so is the opportunity to get it right.

Working this closely with leadership, seeing policy from conception to execution, has been one of the most defining experiences of my professional life. It's taught me that real change doesn't happen in grand pronouncements—it happens in the details, in the late-night drafts, in the stakeholder consultations, in the willingness to listen and iterate.

Asking the Big Question: Am I Still Relevant?

In October and November 2025, I stepped out of the policy corridors and into lecture halls—first at Lal Bahadur Shastri Institute of Management (LBSIM) in Dwarka and then at Delhi Technological University (DTU) (former Delhi College of Engineering).

My opening slide at both sessions posed a question that I believe every professional must grapple with today: "Am I still relevant in a world where machines are becoming smarter every day?"

The students leaned forward. Because this isn't an abstract question anymore—it's personal, it's urgent, and it's real.

We dove deep into how Artificial Intelligence is reshaping finance—from risk management and fraud detection to software productivity and decision-making. Generative AI alone is estimated to add $2.6–$4.4 trillion in annual economic value globally, with financial services capturing a significant share. But beyond the numbers, we discussed the human dimension: How do we stay relevant? How do we adapt? How do we ensure AI augments rather than replaces us?

What struck me most wasn't just the curiosity in their questions, but the anxiety underlying them. These bright young minds are entering a job market where the rules are being rewritten in real-time. My message to them was simple: Don't fear AI. Understand it. Master it. Use it as a tool, not a threat. Use it as an amplifier.

Those sessions reminded me that sharing knowledge isn't just about transferring information—it's about empowering the next generation to navigate uncertainty with confidence.

2026: The Year of Transformation

As I look ahead to 2026, I'm filled with a sense of purpose and possibility that I haven't felt in years. Here's what's calling to me:

1. The Income Tax Act 2025 Implementation

April 1, 2026, isn't just another financial year beginning. It's the dawn of a new tax regime—simpler, clearer, more modern. Being part of the team creating Guidance Notes means I'm not just witnessing this transformation; I'm helping shape it.

The challenge? Making 536 sections and 16 schedules understandable and implementable for millions of taxpayers and thousands of tax officers. The opportunity? Getting it right could set the tone for India's tax administration for the next generation.

This is legacy work. And I want to give it everything I've got.

2. AI and Tax Administration

If there's one area where AI can make a transformative impact, it's tax administration. Imagine a system where:

• Taxpayers get instant, accurate answers to their queries
• Compliance becomes seamless, not burdensome
• Risk assessment is predictive, not reactive
• Litigation reduces because clarity increases

This isn't science fiction. The technology exists. What we need is vision, courage, and careful implementation. In 2026, I want to be part of initiatives that bring AI meaningfully into tax administration—not as a buzzword, but as a practical tool for better governance.

3. Expanding Thought Leadership

The DTU and LBSIM sessions opened my eyes to something important: there's a hunger for nuanced conversations about the future of work, finance, and technology. And I have something to contribute.

In 2026, I want to do more—more speaking engagements, more writing, more collaborations with academic institutions. Not to build a personal brand, but to contribute to the larger conversation. To mentor. To provoke thought. To challenge assumptions (including my own).

My blog, my talks, my interactions—they're all ways of thinking out loud. And I want to do more of that.

4. International Horizons

Having worked as a UN Adviser for the Afghanistan Mission and as a G20 Strategic Consultant for Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), I know the value of bringing global perspectives to domestic challenges—and vice versa. 

The world is interconnected. Tax policy doesn't happen in silos. Whether it's base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS), digital taxation, or climate finance—these are global conversations India needs to be part of. And I want to contribute to that dialogue.

5. Mentoring the Next Generation

Every young professional I've spoken with this year has reminded me: we have a responsibility to those coming behind us. To share not just our successes, but our failures. To demystify careers in public service. To show that impact and integrity can coexist.

In 2026, I want to be more intentional about mentoring—through formal programs, informal conversations, and by being accessible. The students who asked me, "Am I still relevant?" deserve mentors who help them find their own answers.

A Personal Resolution

If I had to distill my aspirations for 2026 into one sentence, it would be this: I want to build bridges—between policy and practice, between technology and humanity, between where we are and where we could be.

The new year isn't just a calendar turning. It's an invitation to recommit, to reimagine, to renew. And I'm ready.

Let's make it count.

What are your resolutions for 2026? What transformation are you hoping to be part of? I'd love to hear from you in the comments.

Digital Governance: A Global Shift

Imagine standing in a long queue at a government office, holding stacks of documents, only to be told to return the next day. Now contrast this with filing taxes, applying for subsidies, or renewing licenses—all from your smartphone. That’s the promise of E-Governance, a rapidly growing market projected to touch USD 50.4 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 11.7%. The transformation is not merely technological; it’s a shift in how states engage with citizens.

The Rise of E-Governance

At its core, E-Governance (electronic governance) refers to the use of digital platforms by governments to deliver services, increase transparency, and engage with citizens. It blends technology with administration—like replacing an outdated manual ledger with a smart dashboard accessible in real time. Growth is driven by multiple factors: governments pushing digital transformation to cut costs, smartphone and internet penetration (India already has over 750 million users), advanced technologies like AI, blockchain and IoT being embedded into systems, and international commitments like the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals encouraging inclusion and transparency.

Case Study: India’s Digital India Mission

India is one of the strongest illustrations of e-governance adoption. Launched in 2015, Digital India aimed at transforming the country into a digitally empowered society. Aadhaar-based identity has enabled direct benefit transfers, reducing ghost beneficiaries. The GST Network (GSTN) improved tax compliance and transparency. The UMANG app consolidated over a thousand government services into one platform. Together, these initiatives have simplified citizen engagement, enhanced efficiency, and curbed leakages in welfare delivery.

Global Success Stories

Estonia is regarded as the world’s most digitally advanced government, where citizens can vote online, access medical prescriptions, and register businesses within minutes. The United States and Canada have leaned on cloud-based platforms for efficiency and cybersecurity in public services. Meanwhile, China’s ambitious smart city projects showcase how IoT and big data can help governments manage urban planning and civic resources effectively. These diverse cases show that whether in Europe, North America or Asia, e-governance has become a universal necessity.

Opportunities Ahead

The future of e-governance presents immense opportunities. Smart city projects will increasingly depend on digital governance for managing traffic, utilities, and public services. Regions like the European Union are already experimenting with cross-border governance systems through digital single markets. Further, the use of big data and AI in policymaking will allow governments to anticipate and address citizen needs more proactively rather than merely reacting.

Challenges to Overcome

Despite its promise, digital governance faces key hurdles. Cybersecurity risks loom large as citizen data becomes a lucrative target for hackers. The digital divide persists in rural and underserved areas, risking exclusion for millions. Resistance from bureaucratic structures and lack of digital literacy can slow down reforms. For low-income nations, the high cost of infrastructure remains a substantial barrier.

Financial Implications

For finance professionals, the rise of e-governance has direct implications. Governments benefit from cost savings through reduced paperwork and fewer intermediaries. IT and consulting firms such as Infosys, TCS, and Accenture see new opportunities as implementation partners. Investors, too, should note the projected 11.7% CAGR growth, making e-governance solution providers a significant investment theme in the coming decade.

Conclusion

E-Governance is no longer an option—it is an imperative. As the market surges towards USD 50.4 billion by 2032, governments must balance innovation with inclusivity and security. India’s Digital India journey, Estonia’s digital-first model, and global smart city initiatives show that paperless, data-driven governance is not just desirable but achievable. The future of governance is transparent, contactless, and citizen-centric. The real question is not if nations will adopt it, but how fast.