Three Cents On The Dollar

Three cents.

That is roughly what one extra dollar of AI model spend is replacing, in routine knowledge work, at the firms most exposed to the shift. Among the most AI-exposed companies, each $1 drop in spending on online labour marketplaces corresponded to only about three cents in added AI model spend by the third quarter of 2025. The ratio comes from firm-level payments data analysed by Ryan Stevens of Ramp, and it has been doing the rounds in public-sector commentary this week.

If that number holds, the implication is not that AI is ‘cheaper’ in the comforting, marginal way most agency notes describe it. The implication is that the market price of a meaningful slice of first-pass, reviewable knowledge work has collapsed by roughly an order of magnitude. That is not a procurement story. It is a public finance story, and we should treat it as such.

What the 33-to-1 ratio actually says

A 33-to-1 substitution ratio is not, strictly, a substitution ratio. It is a ratio between two budget lines, captured at one moment, in one slice of the economy, by one provider’s payments data. Read with care, it tells you three things.

One: buyers have found a class of output where the first pass is now an AI deliverable rather than a human one, and the first pass is the part they used to outsource. Two: the unit cost of producing that first pass has fallen far enough that even a sceptical CFO is rewriting last year’s contractor budget. Three, and most important: the saved spend is not, mostly, being reinvested in a more expensive in-house model. It is leaving the books altogether.

For a government department, that last point matters most. In the private sector, ‘leaving the books’ eventually shows up as somebody’s lost job. In the public sector it shows up - or refuses to show up - as a backlog that does not grow, a clearance cycle that does not lengthen, a sanctioned post quietly left vacant. The change is invisible until you go looking for it.

Why government cannot just copy the ratio

It would be a mistake to read this number and rush to swap people for tokens inside a tax administration. Public-sector value is not what the private sector buys when it buys ‘first-pass output’. From inside a national tax administration, one learns quickly that the value of a routine notice is not in its first draft. It is in the fact that the draft is recorded, attributable, reviewable and defensible six years later under cross-examination.

None of that vanishes if AI does the drafting. But it changes who is accountable for what, and at which moment in the workflow. Records-management law, natural justice, statutory limitation, the discipline of audi alteram partem - these are not procurement constraints. They are the architecture of the trust the department holds with the citizen. Any honest AI strategy in this domain begins there and works backwards to the model, not the other way around.

The serious question for the head of any large administration is therefore not ‘where can I deploy a model?’ It is: where in my workflow is the first pass currently a bottleneck, who reviews it, and what does that review actually verify? If the review is genuine - a senior officer reading, weighing, signing - AI is a gift; the bottleneck moves to where it belongs, which is judgment. If the review is rubber-stamping, AI will reprice that work to zero and the institution will not notice until the courts do.

Where the repricing is already real

The categories where this repricing is real will be familiar to anyone who has worked the field. Drafting of routine intimations and standard show-cause notices. Cross-referencing returns against third-party information. Summarising voluminous assessment records before a hearing. Preparing first-pass replies to grievance petitions. Tagging and classifying taxpayer correspondence. Translating dense statutory text into plain-language guidance for citizens.

Each is a place where the marginal cost of a first pass has fallen sharply. Each is also a place where a human signature still ought to mean something. The design problem is precisely how to keep the signature serious while the draft becomes cheap.

Three operating shifts that would actually help

• Measure the bottleneck, not the licence. An honest dashboard tracks clearance cycle times, refund-issue latency, time-to-first-response on grievances. If those are not moving, the model is decorative.
• Promote the reviewer. Where AI does the first pass, the human downstream should be more senior, not less. The saving is bought by elevating the reviewer’s standard, and paying her for judgment rather than throughput.
• Budget for the audit trail before the model. Every AI-assisted output in a tax administration must carry a verifiable record of what the model saw, what it produced, what the officer changed, and why. The audit trail is the primary product. The draft is secondary.

The budget question we should be asking

Michael Ting’s course on public sector organisations at Columbia used to insist that the deepest puzzle in bureaucratic design is not how to motivate effort but how to allocate scarce attention. The Ramp number, read honestly, is a story about attention, not effort. Cheap first passes free attention; what an institution does with that freed attention is the whole game.

The danger a department most needs to guard against is the most boring one: cashing the saving without rebuilding the work. If sanctioned posts are quietly left vacant, if the freed hours are absorbed by more of the same routine work, and if the audit trail is patched on at the end, then the 33-to-1 ratio will become the public sector’s number too - and we will have repriced our own knowledge work without ever asking what we wanted to do with the difference.

The better view, I think, is to treat this moment as a budgeting exercise, not a tooling exercise. Ask, for every freed officer-hour, what higher-value question we now want that officer to be asking. Then build the model around the answer. The cheapest first pass in history will be wasted on the same old second pass.

After Aadhaar, the Productivity Test

On 28 April 2026, NITI Aayog and the Frontier Technology Hub released a roadmap called DPI@2047. The Chief Economic Adviser described India's next phase of digital public infrastructure as a total factor productivity engine. That phrase is doing more work than it looks. It marks the end of one era and the beginning of a harder one.

Reach was the easy part

The first decade of DPI was a reach problem. Could we give 1.4 billion people a verifiable identity? Could we route real-time payments at population scale? Could we plug welfare into a single pipe? JAM, UPI, DigiLocker and GeM answered yes. DPI@2047 quietly concedes that the welfare-delivery question is settled, and sets a different one. The new task is not to reach the citizen; it is to lift what the citizen, the small firm and the small farm can actually produce.

That is a different test, and most departments are not yet measuring themselves against it. The roadmap proposes eight sectoral transformations across MSMEs, agriculture, education, health, credit, energy and social protection, with a state-led, district-executed model and pilots from 2026-27. Notice the language: district-executed. The unit of accountability is shifting downwards. Productivity, unlike inclusion, cannot be claimed in a press release; it has to show up in somebody's actual output.

Why most departments will misread this

The instinctive reading of DPI 2.0 inside government will be: more APIs, more dashboards, more apps. That misreads the brief.

Phase one of DPI worked because it disentangled the rails, identity, payments and data, from the application layer. Phase two is being asked to do something subtler. It must disentangle existing work from existing process. A welfare benefit can move through a new pipe without changing what the benefit is. Productivity gains demand the opposite. The pipe is uninteresting; what changes is the work itself. Deloitte's Government Trends 2026 puts it crisply: the biggest gains come not from automating old processes but from redesigning the work itself. A UK trial of over 20,000 civil servants using generative AI for three months saved an average of 26 minutes a day per person, nearly two working weeks a year. That is not because the AI replaced anybody; it is because the work was finally allowed to be done differently.

Inside Indian government, I have watched well-meaning officers turn a transformative tool into a faster version of the form it was meant to replace. The form persists, the discretion persists, the file persists. Faster, but unchanged. DPI 2.0 will succeed or fail on whether departments are willing to give that comfort up.

Three moves a department should make immediately

Stop digitising forms; redesign the file. The unit of bureaucratic work in India is the file. Every project I have seen that put a digital wrapper around an unchanged file reproduced the same delays in colour. Pick three high-volume work-streams, write down what an ideal file looks like with AI-assisted drafting embedded in it, and re-engineer backwards. The form is downstream; the file is upstream.

Build agents that draft, not bots that retrieve. Most public-sector AI in India today is a chatbot that finds a circular. That was the right starting point. It is now the ceiling. The gain lies in agents that draft an order, prepare a notice, summarise a representation, and present a ready-to-sign output. The officer reviews and decides; the typing is gone. We are using a five-times leverage tool as a 1.2-times search tool, and calling it transformation.

Measure officer-minutes, not transactions. If DPI 2.0 is about productivity, the metric must be productivity. Most dashboards still count transactions: files moved, returns filed, calls answered. None of that tells you whether the work got lighter. The metric that should matter, and that nobody is asked to report, is officer-minutes saved per case. A department that reports this number will, within two quarters, look very different from one that does not.

The harder test is institutional will

The CEA said something else at the launch that has not been quoted enough: India has strong design capabilities, but success will depend on sustained institutional will to move from strategy to execution. That is the polite version of the real problem. Indian bureaucracy is excellent at announcing platforms and indifferent at reorganising work around them. DPI 1.0 succeeded partly because it was built outside the line department, on rails the rest of government had to either ride or be left behind by. DPI 2.0 is being handed to the line departments themselves.

So the productivity test is, in the end, a leadership test. Which Secretaries will decide that their teams write fewer pages, sign fewer files and answer fewer queries by the end of next year? Those are the departments where DPI 2.0 will arrive. The rest will get a new portal.

The Power of Pausing Before Acting

We all know that rational thinking is important. But have you ever paused to ask yourself: When should I think rationally? If you're like many people, your mind is likely already racing ahead, filled with to-do lists, decisions, and concerns. But knowing when to stop and think might be the most crucial skill of all.

Imagine you’re Spider-Man, swinging through the city when suddenly, a villain throws a surprise attack. Your instincts tell you to react instantly. But what if, instead of just relying on your reflexes, you took a split second to analyze the situation? You’d realize there’s a better solution, perhaps saving the day in a much smarter way. That tiny pause—between the attack and your response—could make all the difference.

In real life, this is the space where rational thinking comes in. But here’s the problem: most of us are like the Hulk. When something unexpected happens—like someone cutting in line at the coffee shop or a coworker sending a frustrating email—we "smash" without thinking. It’s our emotions taking over. We know we should think, but in that heated moment, the anger or stress is so loud that rationality takes a back seat.

When to Pause: The Secret Superpower

Rationality is wasted if we don’t know when to use it. Think of Wonder Woman—she doesn’t always need to use her lasso of truth. But when she does, it’s in the right moment, allowing her to capture the truth and solve the problem at hand.

So, why don’t we always pause and think when we need to? It’s because life, much like a chaotic superhero fight, pulls us in every direction. We often act on impulse. When the pressure mounts, whether from a deadline or a personal conflict, we let the situation think for us. Instead of using our own rationality, we hand control over to external forces.

It’s as if we expect an inner voice to suddenly shout, “Stop! This is when you need to think!” But more often than not, that voice doesn’t speak up, and we default to emotional or automatic reactions.

The Space Between: Pause or Pounce

Let’s take a cue from Danny Dog and Peppa Pig, playing in the backyard. They have two choices when a toy dispute arises: jump into an argument (the automatic response) or pause and figure out a solution (the rational response). Kids, like adults, don’t always know when to step back and think. But the key is learning to recognize that tiny space between stimulus and response.

In that space, you have two options:

1. React without thinking (like Batman charging into a situation with pure instinct).
2. Pause, think, and make a decision based on rational judgment (like Iron Man, analyzing every possible angle before making his move).

The next time you’re faced with a challenging situation, whether it’s a difficult conversation or a sudden problem at work, remember this: pause. Like Captain Marvel pausing to assess her enemy's weaknesses before making a strategic move, that momentary break can lead to better, more effective decisions.

How to Train Your Rational Muscles

Training yourself to think at the right moment is like building any other muscle—you need to practice. Here are a few tips:

• Catch yourself in the moment: When you feel yourself reacting emotionally, imagine you’re Superman, hovering above the situation. Observe it before jumping into action.
• Use the "10-second rule": Before responding to a situation, count to ten. This simple act can help activate your rational thinking and prevent you from making impulsive decisions.
• Ask “What’s really going on?”: Like Black Panther, who uses his keen senses and intellect, try to understand the bigger picture. Is it really worth reacting immediately, or is there a better way?

In conclusion, rational thinking isn’t just about knowing how to think—it’s also about knowing when to think. The ability to pause, even for a moment, can transform the way we approach life’s challenges, just like our favorite superheroes know when to act and when to reflect.

So next time you face a decision, don’t just jump in like Aquaman diving into the ocean. Instead, be like Spider-Man, always aware of that crucial moment when thinking will save the day.

Mastering the Art of Negotiation: Strategies for Successful Resolution in the Real World

Have you ever found yourself in a situation where you had to negotiate your way through a conflict, either professionally or personally? Did you come out on top, or did you feel like you could have handled it better? The ability to negotiate and resolve conflicts effectively is a crucial skill for success in all areas of life, and the good news is, it can be learned.

In this article, we delve into the world of negotiation and conflict resolution, exploring various strategies and techniques that can help you navigate even the most challenging situations. We draw on the expertise of renowned authors in the field, providing valuable insights and real-world applications that will equip you with the tools you need to become a master negotiator.

The importance of negotiation in real life cannot be overstated, particularly in high-stakes situations where conflicting interests must be reconciled. One of the most prominent examples of negotiation in action is within the United Nations (UN), where diplomats from diverse countries and cultures engage in dialogue to address global issues, including international conflicts and climate change.

For instance, during the UN Climate Change Conferences, representatives from nearly 200 nations gather to negotiate strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, adapting to the impacts of climate change, and financing efforts to tackle this global challenge. These negotiations involve a delicate balancing act, as parties strive to protect their national interests while working toward a common goal. In the realm of international conflicts, the UN Security Council plays a crucial role in negotiating peace agreements and ceasefires. For example, in the Sudan-South Sudan conflict, the UN facilitated negotiations between the two nations to resolve disputes over oil revenues, border demarcation, and the status of the disputed Abyei region.

In both examples, the art of negotiation proves essential for finding common ground, managing competing interests, and fostering collaboration among diverse stakeholders. Ultimately, these efforts demonstrate the power of negotiation as a tool for conflict resolution and consensus building, enabling progress on issues of global importance.

Negotiation plays a pivotal role in our day-to-day interactions, enabling us to navigate relationships and collaborate effectively with those around us. At home, husbands and wives often negotiate everything from household chores to parenting strategies, striving for a harmonious partnership. Likewise, parents and children negotiate boundaries and expectations as they navigate the challenges of growth and independence. 

Even among college friends, negotiation helps maintain balance and fairness in social dynamics, from coordinating group projects to deciding on weekend plans. When a family embarks on a vacation, negotiation becomes key in ensuring that everyone's preferences and needs are considered, from choosing destinations to planning activities. Moreover, in professional settings, negotiation helps to rebuild strained relationships between colleagues, employees and clients, by fostering open communication, addressing grievances, and finding mutually beneficial solutions. In essence, mastering the art of negotiation in our daily lives paves the way for stronger relationships, effective problem-solving, and overall personal and professional success.

Effective negotiation and conflict resolution involve a range of strategies designed to foster understanding, build trust, and uncover mutually beneficial solutions. Among these strategies, scholars emphasize the importance of empathy, a critical component that allows parties to appreciate the perspectives, interests, and needs of others.

Additionally, the concept of leverage, particularly BATNA (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement) and WATNA (Worst Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement), helps parties assess their options and make informed decisions. By understanding these alternatives, negotiators can determine their walk-away points and strive for outcomes that optimize their positions. 

In the process of negotiation, the ZOPA (Zone of Possible Agreement) represents the range of outcomes that are mutually acceptable to all parties involved. Identifying this zone allows negotiators to explore potential solutions that meet the needs and interests of everyone at the table. 

Finally, the PESTLE analysis (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental) provides a comprehensive framework for assessing external factors that may influence negotiation outcomes. By examining these dimensions, negotiators can better understand the context in which they operate and devise strategies that account for the complexities of the broader environment. In essence, employing these strategies in negotiation and conflict resolution enables parties to navigate challenging situations and collaborate more effectively, ultimately leading to more successful and enduring agreements.

Considering the strained relationship example as discussed above between an employee and a client, a multifaceted negotiation approach is crucial to mend the relationship and address the underlying issues. Drawing on concepts from Stuart Diamond's "Getting to More," the manager as mediator can employ various strategies to facilitate effective negotiation and conflict resolution.

To begin with, the mediator should establish a collaborative atmosphere by utilizing Diamond's "3-D Negotiation" framework: Deal (the transaction), Difference (individual perspectives and priorities), and Dominion (the relationship). This holistic approach will encourage all parties to address the issue's multiple dimensions.

Starting with Dominion, empathy is essential to understand the motivations and frustrations of each party. The mediator should acknowledge the employee's dedication to meeting deadlines and the client's concerns about task completion.

Next, the mediator can explore the Difference by assessing each party's underlying interests and leveraging the BATNA (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement) concept. Recognizing the employee's commitment to fair work and the client's desire for adaptability will help in devising potential solutions.

To address the Deal aspect, the mediator can encourage a ZOPA (Zone of Possible Agreement) approach, where both parties work together to identify potential solutions within a mutually agreeable range. This might include a more structured project plan or improving communication between the parties.

The mediator can also consider the agent's perspective, recognizing their interest in maintaining a long-term relationship between the client and employee. By considering all parties' needs and exploring creative solutions, the mediator can facilitate an integrative (win-win) negotiation. Ultimately, the mediator should ensure that all parties' perspectives are heard and considered, using PESTLE analysis to understand external factors influencing the negotiation outcome. By fostering a collaborative atmosphere and focusing on shared goals, the mediator can facilitate a resolution that strengthens the working relationship and benefits all parties involved.

An example where negotiation techniques can be applied in the Indian political domain is the farmers' protest against the three farm laws passed by the Indian government in 2020.

In this scenario, the government can utilize empathy to understand the concerns of the farmers and their fear of losing minimum support prices (MSP) and being exploited by big corporations. Using a ZOPA (Zone of Possible Agreement) approach, both parties can identify potential solutions that satisfy the farmers' demand for guaranteed MSP and address the government's aim to modernize the agricultural sector.

The BATNA (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement) concept can be employed by the farmers to assess their options outside the negotiation, such as continuing protests or seeking support from opposition parties. The government, on the other hand, could explore alternative ways to implement agricultural reforms while ensuring the welfare of farmers.

Furthermore, both parties can adopt an integrative negotiation approach to find mutually beneficial solutions that promote the growth of the agricultural sector while protecting the interests of farmers. This could involve collaboration with experts in agriculture, economics, and policymaking to devise a comprehensive plan that addresses the concerns of all stakeholders.

Lastly, the PESTLE analysis can be used to understand the external factors influencing the negotiation outcome, such as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the agricultural sector, political dynamics, and public sentiment.

By employing these negotiation techniques, the Indian government and the protesting farmers can work toward resolving the conflict and finding a solution that promotes the well-being of farmers and the overall development of the agricultural sector.

In conclusion, mastering the art of negotiation and conflict resolution is paramount in today's interconnected world, where diverse interests and perspectives often intersect. By employing strategies such as empathy, BATNA, ZOPA, and integrative negotiation, individuals and organizations can effectively navigate challenging situations and cultivate mutually beneficial agreements. As we continue to face complex issues in various domains like politics, business, and interpersonal relationships, the importance of honing our negotiation skills cannot be overstated.

Why is it important to maintain motivation for studies?

Maintaining motivation for studies is important because it can help you stay focused and engaged in your studies, and ultimately help you achieve your academic and career goals. When you are motivated, you are more likely to put in the effort required to learn and succeed, and you are less likely to become discouraged or give up when faced with challenges.

There are many benefits to maintaining motivation for studies, including:

1. Improved grades: When you are motivated to study, you are more likely to put in the time and effort required to understand the material and do well on exams and assignments.

2. Increased confidence: Maintaining motivation can help boost your confidence in your ability to learn and succeed.

3. Greater sense of accomplishment: When you are motivated to study, you are more likely to feel a sense of accomplishment when you complete a course or achieve a specific goal.

4. Better time management: Maintaining motivation can help you prioritize your studies and manage your time more effectively, allowing you to get more done in less time.

5. Improved mental health: Studies have shown that maintaining motivation can improve mental health and well-being, as it can help reduce stress and improve overall quality of life.

Motivation can be defined as the mental or emotional energy that provides a person with the desire to do something. It is a feeling of excitement or enthusiasm about something or a strong wish that something should happen.

There are many reasons for maintaining motivation for studies and these include:

-It helps us to stay focused on our goals

-It helps us to maintain an optimistic outlook

-It helps us to stay disciplined in our efforts

-It helps us keep going when we feel like giving up

Here are a few tips for maintaining motivation for studying:

1. Set clear goals: Having a specific goal in mind, such as earning a certain grade or completing a particular course, can help keep you motivated and focused.

2. Break your studies into manageable chunks: Rather than trying to tackle a large project or course all at once, try breaking it down into smaller, more manageable tasks. This can help you make progress and feel a sense of accomplishment as you complete each task.

3. Find ways to make studying enjoyable: Experiment with different study techniques and find what works best for you. Some people find it helpful to study with music or in a group, while others prefer to study alone in a quiet space.

4. Take breaks: It's important to take breaks and give yourself time to relax and recharge. Taking breaks can help prevent burnout and keep you motivated to continue studying.

5. Seek support: If you are struggling to stay motivated, consider seeking support from friends, family, or a tutor. Having someone to support and encourage you can make a big difference.

6. Reward yourself: Treat yourself to something special when you reach a study goal or complete a difficult task. This can help motivate you to keep working hard.

7. Stay positive: Try to stay positive and focus on your progress, rather than dwelling on any setbacks or challenges you may encounter.

Remember, it's normal to have ups and downs when it comes to motivation. The key is to find what works for you and to be kind to yourself when you are struggling. With a little effort and determination, you can maintain motivation and succeed in your studies.

Jai hind!

Create a System of your own - Reject Autopilot Mode

We are all so overwhelmed by the current situation during this pandemic that most of the times emotions and stress drive our day. With these challenging times, our routines have gone for a toss. Working from home has actually changed the perspective with which we used to see through the day. During the initial days, when the Lockdown was very severe, procuring ration for the house was the most important agenda. But over a period of last 2-3 months, most of us have accepted this as new normal. When things are not planned during the day and we see the day through on its own, it’s basically an auto-pilot mode on which we are running. This needs to be changed and stopped if we want to create some value for ourselves and for others.

This calls for a creation of a system which can help us steer through the day more productively. I faced this challenge mainly on 4 fronts: as a father, as a husband, as a Government employee and as a Boss to my immediate staff. Then I sat sown one day to reflect upon what I was doing, what were my plans for the coming months and how do I intend to achieve them. I realized the importance of solitude. It’s so vital to be on your own at times doing the stuff that you like, planning your calendar and carving your niche day by day.

I have started using the TODOIST app which is keeping me on my toes every day in and out. It has driven me to do the meticulous planning. And accordingly, I have created a system of my own which works for me. Today, being a Sunday, June 14, 2020, is my Review Day and a planning day for the upcoming week. This is really helping me populate my calendar for the coming week so that I am not lost during the week searching for the stuff I need to do as now I already know what are my high priority jobs which needs to be accomplished beforehand. Populating your calendar is such an important concept. Jot down the important areas of your life where you want to work. The starting point can be your major goals. Then they can further be divided into smaller bit by bit achievable goals which can be spread out over the weekdays setting different levels of priorities. This is a discipline I really feel we all as professionals or students need to inculcate. This ensures that we are not driving our life in an autopilot mode and accepting what comes as it is. Personal Discipline is a muscle. The more you stretch it, the stronger it grows.

Further, I have realized the importance of using FEEDLY app. This brings to you the feeds of the websites that you have subscribed to. You need not visit those pages. Whenever a new article is published, you get intimated and updated accordingly. This is such a great productivity tool.

I have my major feeds in Feedly, for instance, Fitness, Parenting, Editorials, Photography, Candlesticks, Relationships, Transfer Pricing, Productivity etc. What I do is I spread these feeds over the coming week and dedicate one hour during a day for that particular feed. For e.g., Monday is my day to read the Editorial feed. Here, I read all the major articles of the newspapers I have subscribed to and grab the ideas from therein.

Also important is to use the EVERNOTE app along with it. Its primarily a note making app. So, while reading, if I come across something interesting grabbing my attention, I don’t waste time clipping it to the relevant notebook in Evernote. Likewise, Tuesdays dedicated for Parenting, Wednesdays dedicated for Stock Market Candlestick charts etc.

Recently, I have also drawn a list of online tutorials which I need to study. This is such an important area which many of us may not delve into. This may include productivity masterclass, Creative writing, photography tutorials, MS Excel ninja, Transfer Pricing Webinars etc. You can cover up the areas wherein you are interested in.

This creation of a system will help us lead a more meaningful, productive and energy driven life. It’s all a game of will power. World class will power is not an inborn strength, but a skill developed through relentless practice.

Cheers!