On the last day of June, Japan's 30-year bond yield touched 3.95 percent while the yen sat at a four-decade low against the dollar, a move Bloomberg tied to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's fresh spending plans and the sense that Tokyo's debt-reduction drive has stalled. For a generation, Japan looked like proof that fiscal orthodoxy was optional: deficits could keep expanding, government debt could cross 250 percent of GDP, and the ten-year barely stirred, because the Bank of Japan owned so much of the market that price discovery had gone quiet. That silence is ending. As the BOJ steps back, long-end yields are re-learning what sovereign risk actually feels like, and the currency is doing the rest of the talking. The signal for every finance ministry watching, India's included, is not new but suddenly sharp: bond markets are patient, and then they are not. A tax base that broadens quietly, year after year, is not a technocratic virtue. It is the buffer that keeps yields from doing your policy for you.
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