Inflation is a term we often hear, but what does it actually mean for you and me? Imagine you buy a cup of tea every morning for ₹10. Now, if the same cup costs ₹12 next year, that’s inflation — prices are rising, and your money doesn’t stretch as far as it used to. Central banks, like the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), are responsible for making sure inflation doesn’t get out of hand. But how well has the RBI done in protecting us from high inflation? Let’s explore this with some simple examples.
What is Inflation Targeting?
Think of inflation targeting like setting the air conditioner in your home. You set it to 24°C, and the AC works to keep the room at that temperature. If it gets hotter, the AC cools things down, and if it’s too cold, the AC eases up. The RBI does something similar with inflation. In 2016, RBI decided to keep inflation around 4% (with a margin of ±2%). This means they want prices to rise gradually but not too fast.
Economists like Barry Eichengreen and Poonam Gupta (NCAER) have studied India’s inflation targeting strategy and concluded that it has helped India stabilize its inflation, bringing it closer to global standards. Before 2016, prices in India would often fluctuate wildly, making it difficult for people and businesses to plan. Since the RBI started targeting inflation, things have become more predictable.
Example 1: The Price of Rice
Before 2016, rice prices would often swing wildly. One month, it would be affordable, and the next month, it would cost much more. This was because inflation was unstable. Since RBI started targeting inflation, they have kept things more predictable, so your monthly grocery budget doesn’t have too many surprises.
Example 2: Stable EMI Payments
Imagine you took out a loan to buy a car. If inflation rises too quickly, the bank might increase the interest rate on your loan to keep up. This means your EMI payments could go up unexpectedly. By keeping inflation stable, RBI helps ensure that your monthly payments remain manageable, which gives you peace of mind.
CPI vs. WPI: What’s the Difference?
RBI mainly looks at something called the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is basically a basket of everyday items you buy — food, clothes, petrol, and more. When the prices of these items go up, the CPI goes up, and that’s how we measure inflation. Another measure is the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), which tracks the prices manufacturers pay for goods. But CPI is more relevant to us because it shows the prices we actually pay.
Example 3: The Price of Milk and Bread
Let’s say milk prices suddenly rise because of a drought that affects cattle. The CPI captures this change because milk is something you buy regularly. On the other hand, WPI might show the cost of milk powder in bulk, which doesn’t directly affect your daily expenses. By focusing on CPI, RBI keeps an eye on what matters most to households.
Why is Food Inflation Important?
Some people suggest that the RBI should ignore food prices when measuring inflation because food prices can be unpredictable. But food is a big part of household spending in India. If the price of onions or wheat goes up, it affects everyone’s budget, so it makes sense to include food in the inflation calculations.
Example 4: The Onion Price Spike
In 2019, onion prices in India shot up due to bad weather. If RBI ignored food prices, this wouldn’t have shown up in their inflation data, even though it affected millions of families. By considering food prices, RBI ensures that their inflation measure reflects the reality faced by ordinary people.
The Global Picture: Learning from Other Countries
Inflation is not just an Indian issue; it’s a global one. Over the last couple of years, central banks around the world increased interest rates to control inflation. The IMF called this the “great tightening,” meaning banks made it more expensive to borrow money to stop people from spending too much and driving prices up. This strategy helped bring inflation down, but new problems are emerging.
Example 5: The Price of Coffee in America vs. Europe
In the United States, inflation has slowed down, but it’s still a bit higher than they want, even though their economy is booming. Meanwhile, Europe has the opposite issue — inflation has gone down, but their economy isn’t growing as much, which can be a problem too. This shows that there’s a delicate balance to managing inflation, and different countries face different challenges.
How Inflation Targeting Helps Companies
One benefit of inflation targeting is that it creates a predictable environment for businesses. Imagine running a small bakery. If flour prices are stable, you can plan how much bread to bake and how to price it. But if prices keep changing, you’ll struggle to set prices, and this could hurt your profits.
Example 6: The Bakery Business
A local bakery relies on a stable price of flour, sugar, and other ingredients to plan their sales. When RBI targets inflation, it helps keep these input costs predictable. This way, the bakery owner can set prices for the next six months without worrying about sudden spikes in their raw material costs, which would otherwise force them to adjust prices constantly.
The ‘Last Mile’ Problem: Why Inflation Control is Tricky
The hardest part of managing inflation is what experts call the “last mile.” It’s like running a marathon — the first 20 kilometers might be tough, but it’s the last few kilometers that are the hardest. The same is true for inflation. Reducing inflation from high to moderate levels is relatively easy, but bringing it down further to the desired level is tricky.
Example 7: Cooling Down a Hot Pan
Think of it like cooling down a hot frying pan. If you take the pan off the stove, it cools quickly at first, but it takes longer to cool completely. Similarly, inflation might slow down fast initially, but it takes more effort to get it to the perfect level. RBI has to carefully adjust interest rates to make sure inflation doesn’t spike again, just like you have to wait a bit longer for the pan to cool down completely.
The Takeaway
Inflation targeting has proven to be an effective tool for the RBI. By focusing on CPI, including food prices, RBI has managed to create a more predictable economic environment, helping people plan their expenses and businesses plan their investments. However, there’s still room for improvement, like updating the inflation basket to better reflect current spending habits. Barry Eichengreen and Poonam Gupta have also suggested revising the weight of food in the CPI basket, as income levels rise and people spend differently over time.
For businesses and individuals, the key is to look beyond just the headlines. While inflation numbers might drop, understanding the details — like core inflation and how food prices affect overall costs — can help everyone make better financial decisions. As global economic uncertainties persist, RBI’s careful inflation management is a safety net that helps keep prices in check, allowing businesses to thrive and families to plan their budgets with more confidence.
In short, RBI’s efforts are like a well-set thermostat, keeping our economic environment comfortable and stable. And just like setting the right temperature in your home, fine-tuning inflation control requires constant attention and care.
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